Wells Fargo Says $150B Tax Refunds Could Spark a Bitcoin YOLO Trade

As tax season approaches, analysts predict that as much as $150 billion in tax refunds may flow into financial markets in the coming weeks, potentially reigniting a speculative Bitcoin YOLO Trade among retail investors. Coined during the pandemic, analysts predict the return of the YOLO trade after provisions in the Big Beautiful Bill favour tax filers in the coming round.

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How $150B Tax Refund Inflows Could Fuel a Bitcoin YOLO Trade

A large pool of capital is set to hit consumer accounts in a compressed timeframe, and analysts predict that a meaningful share of that money will be reinvested. This liquidity influx could fuel the YOLO trade that took place during the pandemic.

According to Wells Fargo analyst Ohsung Kwon, these refunds are destined for risk assets. In a statement, he said:

“Additional savings from tax returns, especially for the high-income consumer, will flow back into equities, in our view. Speculation picks up with bigger savings…we expect YOLO to return.”

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Analysts are appealing to the psychology of the YOLO investor. The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by stubborn inflation and a high cost of living. With money in hand, retail investors are looking to turn a modest refund into a life-changing gain.

But why Bitcoin? Bitcoin (BTC) is the go-to risk asset for most people if you’re willing to unlock a quick lottery ticket-like gain. This is because it is the fastest-moving, most visible, and easiest high-risk bet. While Bitcoin is the primary target, other risk assets, including high-growth tech stocks and speculative altcoins, are likely to see a corresponding surge in volume.

Seasonal Catalyst Not Long-term Strategy

The $150 billion toward crypto markets, although modest, could produce noticeable price effects due to Bitcoin’s relatively limited liquid supply.

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Still, despite the optimistic outlook, this refund-driven demand would likely act as a temporary liquidity boost rather than a structural shift in market fundamentals. And while this helps the price, it also increases volatility, making it a double-edged sword.