Business
February 18, 2026
The Clarity Act crypto hearing is scheduled for Feb. 20, with Congress set to discuss the bill’s impact on stablecoin regulation and US crypto regulation more broadly. Polymarket odds for the act passing by 2026 spiked to 90% earlier this week, then pulled back to around 56-60% at the time of writing, reflecting how uncertain the crypto legislation timeline still is. Senator Bernie Moreno is pushing for an April passage, and Trump is reportedly expected to sign the bill in the near term.
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Feb. 20 Clarity Act Hearing and the Latest Polymarket Odds
Moreno, Armstrong Push for Clarity Act Crypto Deal
Senator Bernie Moreno told CNBC at Mar-a-Lago that the Clarity Act crypto bill could pass “hopefully by April.” The main sticking point has been stablecoin rewards, with banks arguing that interest-bearing stablecoins would pull deposits away from traditional finance. Moreno said the issue “shouldn’t be part of this equation.”
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, who had previously pulled Coinbase’s support for the bill over the stablecoin rewards ban and the SEC’s proposed role as primary regulator, is now back on board. Armstrong posted on X on Feb. 18, 2026:
“Market structure is making great progress, and I believe we’re going to reach a win-win-win outcome. A win for the crypto industry. A win for the banks. And, most importantly, a win for the American consumer.”
Market structure is making great progress, and I believe we're going to reach a win-win-win outcome.
— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) February 18, 2026
A win for the crypto industry.
A win for the banks.
And, most importantly, a win for the American consumer. pic.twitter.com/t0WM3XUZX4
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Polymarket Odds and Trump’s Expected Signature
BSCN says Polymarket odds jumped after Armstrong told CNBC that Trump is expected to sign the Clarity Act soon. At the same time, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that regulatory clarity would help steady investor sentiment, which also added to the early spike in Clarity Act Polymarket odds.
🚨BREAKING: TRUMP EXPECTED TO SIGN THE CLARITY ACT SOON
— BSCN (@BSCNews) February 18, 2026
According to an interview with @coinbase CEO @brian_armstrong, Trump is expected to sign the act soon.
The correlated @Polymarket odds soared today on the news. pic.twitter.com/faSJb7cTyG
Per Polymarket traders at the time of writing, there is now a 60% chance of the Clarity Act becoming law by 2026, down from the 90% peak seen earlier this week.
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