Oil Prices Drop Below $100 & Stocks Surge on US-Iran Ceasefire

Oil prices today crashed below $100 a barrel on Tuesday after President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Brent crude oil dropped more than 14% within hours, and US stock futures surged sharply across global exchanges. As The Guardian reported, the deal was tied to Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply.

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Why Oil Prices Today Plunge as Brent Crude Falls and Stock Futures Rise

How Markets Reacted

Trump posted to Truth Social just over an hour before his 8 p.m. ET deadline, confirming he agreed to halt military operations for two weeks. Oil prices today dropped fast. Brent crude oil fell to around $93.48, touching as low as $91.72 at one point. US crude futures also fell hard, losing more than 15% to trade under $95 a barrel, though still well above the $67 level from before the war started in late February.

Stock futures rose sharply. Dow futures jumped more than 900 points, the S&P 500 gained around 2.1%, and Nasdaq futures added about 2.5%. Japan’s Nikkei surged 4.9%, South Korea’s Kospi climbed 5.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 2.8%.

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What the Ceasefire Deal Included

Trump stated:

“This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning long-term PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

Iran’s national security council confirmed the agreement, though state-run channel IRIB was quick to add:

“This is not the end of the war but all military branches should follow the Supreme Leader order and cease their fire.”

Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed his country would allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks. Peace talks are set to begin in Islamabad on Friday. The market implications go beyond oil. Analysts have already started mapping out scenarios depending on how long the ceasefire holds and whether crude stays at current levels or climbs back up.

What Analysts Are Saying

Several analysts warned oil prices today could spike again quickly. The founder of Rapidan Energy Group, Bob McNally, told CNN:

“The market has been eager to get good news but it remains to be seen if the Strait of Hormuz opens fully. That’s the whole ball of wax and so far Washington and Tehran seem to be talking past each other on that.”

Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, mentioned:

“Investors would like to get the Strait of Hormuz open and this conflict behind them.”

Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, told Reuters:

“That will determine whether this remains just a relief rally or starts to look more like a durable de-escalation.”

Brent crude oil and US crude both sit well above pre-war levels, and gas prices at the pump rose another 14 cents per gallon in the week before Trump’s announcement, per AAA data. The conflict cut off an estimated 12 to 15 million barrels per day through the near-closure of the Strait. Whether oil prices today hold lower depends on what comes out of Islamabad on Friday.

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