US Could Owe $100B+ in Trump Tariff Refunds as Interest Hits $700M Monthly

Trump tariff refunds could cost the US government over $100 billion after a federal judge ordered the administration to begin processing repayments on tariffs the Supreme Court ruled illegal. The interest alone is accumulating at around $700 million per month, or roughly $23 million a day.

The illegal tariffs ruling stemmed from the Supreme Court’s decision that President Trump had no authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, known as IEEPA, to impose tariffs on US trading partners. That IEEPA tariff decision has now opened the door to thousands of business lawsuits demanding full refunds plus interest. The taxpayer cost of tariffs, at this rate, could far exceed what was ever collected.

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How Trump Tariff Refunds and the Illegal Tariffs Ruling Hit US Finances

Judge Richard K. Eaton of the United States Court of International Trade issued the order on March 4, 2026, directing US Customs and Border Protection to begin the first steps toward processing Trump tariff refunds. A follow-up hearing was also scheduled for Friday. The Trump administration is expected to appeal, having shifted from an earlier stance that refunds would be issued if the tariffs were struck down.

Dan Anthony, executive director of We Pay the Tariffs, stated:

“This is a victory for small businesses who have paid billions in unlawful tariffs and deserve their money back. The court acted swiftly and correctly. Now the ball is in the government’s court, and small businesses are concerned they will drag this out further.”

Interest Is Piling Up as Delays Continue

Research from the Cato Institute shows how fast the tariff refund interest is growing. Using compound interest at a 4.5% IRS rate for large corporate overpayments, the projections show interest on IEEPA collections continuing to stack well into 2029 if repayment is delayed.

The illegal tariffs ruling froze new collections, but the interest bar on the chart keeps climbing every month regardless. Under US law, importers are also entitled to interest from the date duties were originally paid, meaning the IEEPA tariff decision carries a compounding cost that grows the longer the administration stalls. The taxpayer cost of tariffs is not a static number and right now it is getting worse by the day.

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