Meta Builds Prediction Markets App as Cboe Launches First Forecasting Product

Key Takeaways

• Meta is reportedly building a prediction markets app called Arena to compete with Polymarket and Kalshi
• Cboe launched its first prediction markets product featuring contracts tied to the Mini-S&P 500 Index
• The moves highlight growing mainstream interest in prediction markets across both Big Tech and traditional finance

Prediction markets have spent years on the edges of finance, attracting election watchers, crypto traders, and people willing to put money behind their convictions. Now, some of the biggest names in technology and traditional markets want in. Reports that Meta is developing a prediction markets app arrived on the same day that Cboe unveiled its first forecasting product. This is a reminder that what was once a niche corner of the internet is quickly becoming a business opportunity too large to ignore.

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Meta and Cboe Are Chasing the Same Trend

According to a report from The New York Times, Mark Zuckerberg has approved development of a standalone prediction markets app internally known as “Arena.” Sources familiar with the project described it as experimental but a high priority within Meta.

The current version reportedly would not involve real-money betting. Instead, users would earn points by correctly predicting outcomes, though the report noted that monetary features could be added later.

The move would place Meta alongside platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. This has helped bring prediction markets into the mainstream conversation over the past year. X has already embraced the trend through its partnership with Polymarket. Meanwhile, regulators and lawmakers continue debating where prediction markets fit within existing financial and gambling frameworks.

Meta’s reported plans surfaced just hours before Cboe announced its own entry into the sector. The exchange operator, best known for the VIX volatility index, launched binary option contracts tied to the Mini-S&P 500 Index. The contracts are available through Interactive Brokers and are expected to expand to additional brokerage platforms, including Charles Schwab.

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Prediction Markets Are Moving Beyond Crypto

The industry’s growth helps explain why new players are showing interest. According to data cited by the Pew Research Center, combined monthly trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi climbed to roughly $24 billion in April. This is up from less than $5 billion last September. What began largely as a crypto-native product is increasingly attracting attention from mainstream financial institutions and technology companies.

For Cboe, the opportunity builds on demand for short-term, event-driven trading products such as zero-day-to-expiry options. For Meta, prediction markets represent something different, this is a chance to turn forecasting into a social experience that could eventually connect millions of users.

The details of Arena remain unclear, and prediction markets continue to face legal scrutiny in several states. Even so, the direction of travel is becoming harder to miss. Prediction markets are no longer competing for attention. They are attracting it from some of the largest companies in the world.

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