Markets
April 2, 2026
Oil Surges and Gold Crashes as Trump Vows to Send Iran into the Stone Age
Oil price for physical Brent crude deliveries hit $141.37 on Thursday, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, per S&P Global. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for over a month, and the Iran war has pulled a significant chunk of supply off the market. Brent crude price surged 55% in March, the largest monthly gain since records began in 1988, beating even the Gulf War spike of 46% in 1990. The IEA chief called it “the greatest global energy security challenge in history” and warned that April will be worse.
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Iran Hinted at Hormuz Deal and BlackRock Says $150 Oil Triggers Recession
The Gap Between Spot and Futures Is the Real Story
The June Brent futures contract settled at $109.03 on Thursday, a full $32.33 below the physical spot price. That spread is what analysts are flagging. Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects, told CNBC:
“You are seeing it but the financial market is almost masking the true tightness that everywhere else is showing up.”
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth had this to say at CERAWeek:
“There are very real, physical manifestations of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that are working their way around the world and through the system that I don’t think are fully priced into the futures curves on oil.”
WTI hit $113.97 on Thursday, its biggest absolute price rise since 2020.
UN Veto Leaves No Legal Path to Reopen Hormuz
Russia, China and France vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that would have authorized military force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, per the New York Times. The push had been led by Gulf Arab states. Any coalition acting now does so without international legal cover, and the oil price reflects that reality.
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Iran and Oman Signal a Possible Deal
Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi said through IRNA that traffic through the strait could resume if “supervised and coordinated” by Iran and Oman. The two countries are drafting a protocol to that effect. The Brent crude price eased from session highs after the report.
Where the Oil Price Goes From Here
To quote the biggest names in the industry, here is an overview of oil prices forecasts for 2026:
- JP Morgan sees oil at $120 to $130 near term.
- Citi puts the bull case at $130 for the second half.
- BlackRock’s CEO, Larry Fink, warned that oil at $150 per barrel could trigger a global recession. The Iran war has pushed the oil price to within $9 of that number.
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