SpaceX IPO Faces China Ban as Morgan Stanley Predicts $3.4T Revenue by 2040

Key Takeaways

• Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX could generate $3.4 trillion in annual revenue by 2040,
• The SpaceX IPO is expected to raise roughly $75 billion at $135 per share, giving the company an estimated SpaceX valuation of about $1.77 trillion
• Reports that underwriters have been instructed not to accept IPO orders from investors in mainland China and Hong Kong, limiting access to one of the most anticipated listings in years

Interest in the SpaceX IPO is picking up as the company moves closer to what could be the largest public offering on record. SpaceX is seeking to raise $75 billion at $135 per share. This deal would value the company at roughly $1.77 trillion. At the same time, new projections from Morgan Stanley are drawing attention to the company’s longer-term growth prospects. But while demand appears strong, not every investor will have access to the offering.

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Morgan Stanley Sees Massive Growth Potential Beyond the IPO

Morgan Stanley is reportedly forecasting that SpaceX revenue could reach $3.4 trillion annually by 2040. The estimate is tied to growth across several parts of the business, including Starlink, launch services, and artificial intelligence. The bank expects SpaceX to generate around $330 billion in revenue by 2030, with AI-related operations accounting for roughly $190 billion of that figure.

The numbers are ambitious, but they help explain why investor interest in the company has remained strong ahead of the listing. According to reports, SpaceX generated $18.67 billion in revenue in 2025, up from $14.02 billion a year earlier. The company reported a net loss of $4.94 billion during the period as it continued investing heavily in expansion.

For investors evaluating the current SpaceX valuation, the debate is increasingly centered on how much future growth can come from businesses beyond rocket launches.

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China Investors Locked Out as Demand for SpaceX Stock Grows

Alongside the revenue projections, questions are emerging about who will be able to participate in the IPO. Reports revealed that SpaceX’s website and IPO roadshow materials were inaccessible in mainland China and Hong Kong. The underwriters have been instructed not to accept subscription orders from investors in those markets. This is because of regulatory and national security concerns tied to US technology restrictions.

The move could limit participation from a region where Elon Musk remains a well-known figure through Tesla. Still, analysts say institutional demand for SpaceX stock remains strong. Mostly, investors look for exposure to one of the most closely watched companies heading to public markets this year.

The IPO is expected to draw attention from both retail and institutional investors, particularly as SpaceX continues expanding its presence across satellite communications, aerospace, and AI infrastructure.

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