How Low Will SpaceX Stock Go After the Bond Selloff: Can It Go to Zero?

• SpaceX stock crashed 16.43% to $154.60 after Monday’s bond selloff, erasing $400.8 billion in market value, and pulling shares a third below their $225.64 post-IPO high
• Wall Street can’t agree on how low SpaceX stock will go, with targets ranging from Arete’s bullish $401 to Morningstar’s bearish $62
• SpaceX’s August 11 earnings report could trigger fresh selling, since it unlocks lockup rights for 20% of insiders, with another 10% freed up above the $135 IPO price

SpaceX stock could fall as low as $62 a share in a worst case scenario, according to Morningstar. Wall Street’s average 12 month target still sits at $187.80 right now, even with the stock under pressure, but how low will SpaceX stock go from here is the question driving trading after Monday’s SpaceX bond selloff. The selloff dragged shares down 16.43% to a close of $154.60 and the stock crash has also revived a blunter question, can SpaceX go to zero? Here is the SpaceX stock price today, what is behind the drop, and what analysts expect next.

Also Read: SpaceX Loses $620 Billion in Market Value Days After Retail Buying Frenzy

SpaceX Stock Crash, Bond Selloff & Zero Risk Outlook

SpaceX Stock Price Today After The Bond Selloff

Right now, SpaceX shares trade at $151.05 in early Tuesday action, down 2.30% overnight and stretching Monday’s slide a little further. As Investopedia reports, shares fell to their lowest level since IPO day. That alone tells you a lot about the SpaceX stock price today. The stock has dropped about a third from its post-IPO high of $225.64, a steep fall for a company that only just went public.

SpaceX debuted on June 12 at $135 a share in the largest public offering in history and it jumped nearly 20% on day one and kept climbing toward that $225.64 peak before sellers finally took over. Investopedia also flagged that the shares could get a lift from index fund inclusion this week. Some funds are planning to add the stock soon, which might offset some of the bond related selling. How low will SpaceX stock go before buyers step back in now depends a lot on how this week’s bond sale plays out. It also depends on whether the broader market stays calm enough to let SpaceX find some kind of floor.

Here is how Monday’s drop and the overnight slide actually looked on the chart, right down to the after hours print:

Why The SpaceX Bond Selloff Happened

SpaceX said Monday that it would launch its first investment-grade bond offering. Proceeds will go toward paying off its bridge loan facility and covering general corporate needs. SpaceX took out that loan, worth up to $20 billion, earlier this year to help fund the merger with Elon Musk’s xAI startup. SpaceX also disclosed that it held about $100.8 billion in cash and equivalents as of June 19, a huge cash pile by almost any measure. Even more, as MSN reveals, the SpaceX bond selloff alone erased $400.8 billion in value. That number alone raises a sharp question: how low will SpaceX stock go if investors keep getting spooked by debt headlines?

KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock initiated coverage with a Sector Weight rating and no price target. He flagged that SpaceX trades near 29 times his 2027 revenue forecast, a steep premium against peers across space, telecom, and AI. Leshock and his colleagues said they wanted more proof that Starship can perform reliably. That is the company’s larger reusable rocket, and it could matter before they turn more bullish on the name. That single technical milestone might matter more than almost anything else and it could end up deciding how low SpaceX stock will go later this year.

Michael Leshock, KeyBanc analyst, had this to say:

“…risk/reward appears balanced, in our view.”

Morningstar has called the IPO price too rich since before the bond news even broke. The firm pegs SpaceX’s fair value at $62 a share, with a best case scenario reaching just $169. The first number sits well below the SpaceX stock price today. All of it feeds directly into one question, how low will SpaceX stock go from current levels and it also explains why some traders are nervous about the SpaceX bond selloff lingering into next week.

Also Read: SpaceX Stock Price Passes Amazon as Musk’s $1.3T Beats the Next 5 Richest Combined

Can SpaceX Stock Go To Zero

Can SpaceX go to zero? Mathematically, yes, and there is no getting around that one. Any public stock, including SpaceX, can be driven to zero. The stock crash this week has put a sharper edge on that question for a lot of regular investors. SpaceX still posts steep losses despite billions in revenue, and its valuation leaves very little room for error. One SpaxeX analysis on Seeking Alpha even calls the stock ground zero of an AI and tech bubble.

The company’s own regulatory filings split it into three segments, Space, Connectivity, and AI. The AI segment alone lost $6.36 billion on just $3.2 billion in revenue last year. Governance also adds another layer of risk here. Special share classes leave Elon Musk in control no matter how many shares insiders sell. Barron’s has warned the stock could come under pressure once employees and early investors start selling under a staggered lockup release plan. Only 639 million shares are currently available to trade, a fraction of the more than 13 billion shares SpaceX has outstanding. That float stays thin enough that heavy selling could move shares sharply once those lockups open up. That, too, hints at the same thing: how low will SpaceX stock go if sentiment turns even a little?

Wall Street’s Price Targets And What Comes Next

Wall Street’s Price Targets Stretch From $62 To $401

The average 12-month target sits at $187.80 right now, about 21% above Monday’s close, based on a poll of seven analysts. The range runs anywhere from a $310 high down to a $62 low that matches Morningstar’s fair value estimate almost to the dollar. That spread captures just how unsettled Wall Street still is on one question: how low will SpaceX stock go, or how high could it climb? Honestly, nobody seems fully sure which way it breaks first.

The chart below lays out that full range, from the $62 low to the $310 high, along with the overall Buy consensus:

It is worth circling back to the can SpaceX go to zero question. Look at a $401 target sitting right next to a $115 one and that gap alone tells you Wall Street has not agreed on much beyond the fact that SpaceX is volatile.

CFRA’s Keith Snyder holds the only Sell rating on the Street, at $115, while Arete Research’s Andrew Beale sits at the other extreme. He initiated coverage on June 18 with a Buy rating and a $401 target, the highest of any analyst. His bet is that Starlink V3 satellites will unlock a large suburban broadband market once Starship starts flying commercially.

Andrew Beale, Arete Research analyst, said:

“hard engineering challenges into stepwise tasks”

Beale’s bull case leans heavily on the Connectivity segment, the only one of SpaceX’s three business lines actually turning a profit so far. It posted $11.39 billion in revenue and $4.42 billion in operating income last year, up nearly 50% and 120% from the year before.

Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan raised his target to $250 the same day, also pointing to SpaceX’s reach across rockets, satellites, and artificial intelligence:

“owns every layer of the AI stack”

Why Most Analysts Still Call It A Buy

Truist Securities ($261), Zephirin Group ($310), and Wolfe Research ($175) have also issued Buy ratings. KGI Securities backs the stock too, just without naming a target. Not everyone treats the high valuation as a reason to sell, though, and that is where things get a little interesting. Plenty of bulls argue SpaceX’s reach across rockets, satellites, and AI justifies paying up. That is exactly why opinions on how low SpaceX stock will ultimately go remain so split right now.

Here is the full lineup of SpaceX ratings and price targets, firm by firm:

Whether the SpaceX stock crash turns into a longer slide depends largely on Starship hitting its milestones on time and on whether retail investors stay patient through all the noise.

Also Read: SpaceX IPO Faces China Ban as Morgan Stanley Predicts $3.4T Revenue by 2040

What Comes Next For SpaceX Stock

SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company is due August 11, a date that carries extra weight because it triggers lockup-related selling rights, according to Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. Twenty percent of insiders become eligible to sell that day. Another 10% unlocks if shares hold 30% above the $135 IPO price for five to ten straight sessions. That detail matters a lot if you are trying to figure out one thing, how low will SpaceX stock go before insiders start cashing out, and it also explains why so many traders keep circling August 11 on their calendars.

For now, unless SpaceX stock drops below $138, Musk’s stake still makes him a trillionaire on paper, at least at the time of writing. Whether the SpaceX stock crash deepens or fades is still an open question. So is whether the SpaceX bond selloff ends up looking like a buying chance or a warning sign. How low will SpaceX stock go from here looks tied to a few things. That includes how investors take the bond sale, what August’s earnings show, and how the Street’s price targets hold up once more shares hit the market. Until then, the question some traders keep asking, can SpaceX go to zero, stays open. The consensus price target still points higher, and that contradiction is the whole story right now.