Markets
March 4, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz closed to tanker traffic, and this has sent oil prices surging nearly 10% to $77.98 a barrel, the highest since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June. Gas prices rising at the pump could get a lot worse, with analysts warning crude could hit $100 and gasoline could climb from $3.11 to $4 per gallon if the situation holds.
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How the Strait of Hormuz Closure and Rumaila Halt Are Driving Oil Prices Higher
The Hormuz Shutdown and What It Means for Prices
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stopped. With roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moving through this chokepoint daily, the impact on oil prices rising has been immediate. Analyst Bob McNally had this to say:
“If the chokepoint remains closed for weeks, crude could hit $100 and gasoline could climb from $3.11 to $4 per gallon.”
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Iraq’s Rumaila Shutdown Adds to the Middle East Oil Crisis
On top of the Strait of Hormuz closed situation, Iraq has shut down oil production at Rumaila, the world’s second largest oil field, which produces 1.5 million barrels per day. The Iraq oil shutdown is being driven by escalating military activity in the region and is compounding the pressure on global supply right now.
A Scenario Last Seen in 2022
The last time WTI crude and U.S. gas prices both crossed $100 and $4 simultaneously was spring 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Gas prices rising to those levels followed a sharp pattern: oil crossed $100 on March 1, gas hit $4 on March 6, and both kept climbing, oil past $120 and gas past $5 by June. Before that, it was 2008.
The Middle East oil crisis unfolding right now is raising the same fears, and with the Strait of Hormuz closed and Rumaila offline, markets are not ruling out a repeat.
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