Markets
March 9, 2026
Crude oil prices surged past $113 per barrel on Monday, hitting levels not seen since June 2022 after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut down. Oil futures are up 68% this month, on track for the biggest monthly gain in recorded history. The oil price shock is already being compared to the 1970s energy crisis, and crude oil futures are moving on every headline out of West Asia. Oil prices today reflect a market pricing in a prolonged supply disruption with no clear end in sight.
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Why Crude Oil Prices Are Surging After the Strait of Hormuz Shutdown
The Chokepoint That Broke the Market
Nearly 20 million barrels of oil per day pass through the Strait of Hormuz under normal conditions. That flow has ground to a near-complete halt. The Wall Street Journal called it the worst global energy crisis since the 1970s, and analysts say the disruption ranks among the largest oil supply shocks in modern history. Crude oil prices are reacting to the risk that the situation worsens before any resolution is reached.
Iran’s New Leader Adds Fuel to the Fire
Reuters reported on March 9, 2026:
“Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, signaling that hardliners remain firmly in charge, as the week-old US-Israeli war with Iran pushed oil above $100 a barrel.”
Mojtaba, 56, is also known as a hardliner. Oil prices surged over 25% in a single day following the announcement, and stock markets tumbled on fears of a prolonged oil shock. Trump had insisted on the U.S. having a say in the selection, a demand that was openly defied.
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Commodities Cracking Under the Pressure
Crude oil prices are not the only thing moving. According to S&P Global Platts data, jet fuel is up 87%, LNG up 106%, and VLCC tanker rates have surged 201% since the conflict began. LNG carrier rates are up 529%. Fertilizer rose 36% and aluminum climbed 20%.
Oil prices today and crude oil futures remain at the mercy of geopolitical developments that show no sign of stabilizing, with the oil price for WTI sitting at $112.77 at the time of writing.
G7 Moves to Release Emergency Oil Reserves
Crude oil prices may soon face a coordinated response. The Financial Times reported on March 9 that G7 finance ministers will discuss a joint release of oil from emergency reserves, coordinated by the International Energy Agency. Three G7 countries, including the U.S., have so far expressed support for the idea.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol is set to join the call to discuss the impact of the Iran war on global energy markets. The IEA and the G7 presidency had not responded to requests for comment at the time of writing.
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