Epic Insider Trading: $125M Made on Oil Before the Iran Deal Was Leaked

• Nearly $920M in crude oil shorts were placed at 3:40 AM ET, 70 minutes before Axios broke the Iran deal story
• Oil prices crashed 12% after the report, handing the mystery trader an estimated $125M gain in hours
• It’s the third suspicious pre-headline oil trade since the Iran war began, and the CFTC is already investigating

Oil price swings during active geopolitical conflicts are expected. What happened on Wednesday morning was not. At 3:40 AM ET, someone placed nearly 10,000 crude oil futures contracts in a short position worth approximately $920 million in notional value, with zero news to justify the move. Seventy minutes later, Axios published an exclusive report saying the U.S. and Iran were closing in on a 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the war. The crude oil price dropped more than 12% by 7:00 AM ET. The position gained an estimated $125 million in hours. Accusations of oil insider trading are now coming from Wall Street analysts, members of Congress, and financial commentators across the board.

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Iran Deal Leak? $920M in Crude Oil Price Shorts Placed 70 Minutes Early

The Kobeissi Letter, a financial newsletter with a large following on X, published a breakdown of the trade shortly after markets opened. According to their analysis, the crude oil short contracts hit the tape at exactly 3:40 AM ET, a window when volume is typically thin and large block trades are rare.

The Kobeissi Letter wrote:

“At 3:40 AM ET today, nearly 10,000 contracts worth of crude oil shorts were taken without any major news. This is equivalent to approximately $920 million in notional value, an unusually large trade for 3:40 AM ET. At 4:50 AM ET, just 70 minutes later, Axios reported that the US is close to a memorandum of understanding to end the Iran War. By 7:00 AM ET, oil prices had fallen over -12% with these crude oil shorts gaining approximately +$125 million. Minutes later, Iran launched the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and oil prices surged +8%. What just happened?”

The Axios report, written by Middle East reporter Barak Ravid and published at 4:50 AM ET, cited two U.S. officials and two additional sources. It described a one-page memorandum being negotiated between Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and several Iranian officials. The deal, as outlined, would have Iran commit to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the U.S. lift sanctions and release frozen funds, and both sides ease restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transit over a 30-day negotiation window.

Minutes after oil prices bottomed, Iran announced the creation of the “Persian Gulf Strait Authority,” a body it said would permanently regulate vessel passage through the strait under new procedures. The crude oil price reversed sharply and surged approximately 8%.

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This Is Not the First Time It Has Happened

The oil insider trading accusations are not new to this conflict. A separate $760 million crude oil short position was reportedly placed just 20 minutes before Iran’s foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz “fully open” last month. Reuters also reported a roughly $950 million bet placed shortly before April’s public ceasefire announcement.

Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) has flagged approximately $2.1 billion in suspicious April trades alone and formally requested a joint investigation from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The CFTC has since reportedly opened its own probe into the Iran war oil trading activity.

Adam Cochran, a professor and policy consultant, wrote on X:

“$900M in oil shorts right before the Axios article. I’ve found at least another $100M in the same kind of trades onchain. Meaning multiple insiders knew about the article forthcoming and traded on it.”

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Lawmakers and Analysts React

The reaction from public figures was fast. Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene posted on X:

“When is everyone going to start realizing that the manic on again off again war/peace rhetoric is really just insider trading? And sprinkle in some murder. Only a select few in the top tax bracket are benefiting from this, and the majority of you ain’t in it.”

Others in finance and media were just as blunt. Michael Bento, owner of Valois Capital Management, wrote on X:

“Record levels of fraud.”

Fox News co-host Jessica Tarlov and historian Phillips O’Brien also weighed in. Tarlov wrote:

“This has to stop. Lives on the line so they can insider trade!”

O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, called it:

“The most corrupt war in US history. Maybe in world history.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking Tuesday about the broader Iran deal negotiations, stated:

“We don’t have to have the actual agreement written in one day. This is highly complex and technical. But we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear on the topics they are willing to negotiate on and the extent of the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make it worthwhile.”

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Axios Reporter Denies Coordination, But Accusations Keep Coming

A separate account, The Hormuz Letter, posted on X claiming that several whistleblowers alleged Axios coordinated news with market insiders, leaking CME order information via phone calls up to 30 minutes before market open and close prints. The post also claimed Iranian political analyst Mohammad Marandi said Trump, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and their close associates profited heavily from what he described as fake news provided to Axios.

Barak Ravid, the Axios reporter who broke the Iran deal story, called the claims “complete and utter bullshit” in a post on X.

Adam Cochran pushed back on the denial:

“Barak can deny it all he wants. 100% of the time he has published a positive Iran war headline, the markets showed over a 600% increase in anomalous buying 5-10 minutes before posting. Had it been simply other insiders learning the same news, and NOT knowing about his article, then the time gaps wouldn’t be so consistent. Given the hit rate, time distance and scale of purchases, it is statistically impossible he isn’t involved.”

What the Markets Are Saying Now

Oil price volatility from the Iran war has been extreme on both sides. On Polymarket, the US-Iran ceasefire contract spiked from roughly 5% to 22% on the Axios report before settling near 15%. Total volume on the event reached nearly $77 million. A deal by June 30 is currently priced at 47%.

Iran’s parliament spokesperson Ebrahim Rezaei dismissed the Axios text as “more of an American wish list than a reality,” undercutting any optimism the report had generated.

Energy stocks moved in lockstep with the crude oil price. Exxon Mobil and Chevron both traded lower during the slide. The inverse crude ETF ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil rallied, and the United States Oil Fund tumbled.

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth had warned just two days earlier, at the Milken Institute Global Conference, that physical shortages in oil supply would start to appear because of the Strait of Hormuz closure. At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate is hovering around $96 per barrel and Brent is trading above $102.

The Iran deal remains unsigned. The oil insider trading investigation is open. And the crude oil price is still swinging on every headline out of Tehran and Washington.

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