JPMorgan: Go Long Energy, Short the Market Until Hormuz Reopens

JPMorgan’s trading desk is telling investors to go long on energy stocks and short the broader market for as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The guidance comes as Brent crude hits $100 a barrel and the International Energy Agency calls the closure the largest oil supply disruption in the history of global markets, with around 10 million barrels per day currently curtailed.

Also Read: Oil Jumps Past $100 as 400M‑Barrel IEA Release Fails Amid Hormuz Disruption

JPMorgan Warns of Aggressive Sell-Off if Hormuz Stays Shut Past Sunday

The bank’s trading desk is not just flagging risk. It is issuing specific, actionable guidance to clients navigating one of the most volatile market environments in recent memory. JPMorgan is warning that if the Strait of Hormuz is still shut when futures markets open on Sunday, investors should expect an aggressive and broad sell-off across equities, with energy being the one sector that continues to benefit.

WTI crude settled at $95.70 at the time of writing, having touched $97 earlier in the week, and Brent is sitting just above $100. The crude oil price in 2026 has become the single biggest variable in equity positioning globally. The moves are already reshaping equity markets in real time. Fertilizer stocks are up anywhere from 7% to 13% as supply chain costs surge, and cruise stocks including Royal Caribbean and Carnival are down around 7% as fuel cost fears hit travel and leisure hard.

Iran War Stocks: Winners and Losers as Hormuz Stays Closed

The split in market performance right now is a direct reflection of what JPMorgan’s trading desk is telling clients. Energy stocks, fertilizer producers, and anything tied directly to oil supply are the clear beneficiaries of an extended Hormuz closure.

Winners:

• CF Industries (CF) – up 7-13%, urea prices surging from $475 to $680 per metric ton as a third of global fertilizer trade transits Hormuz
• Mosaic (MOS) – fertilizer sector among the strongest performers in the market since the closure began
• Exxon Mobil (XOM) – near all-time highs, Wells Fargo raised price target to $183, Permian breakeven at $35 a barrel
• Chevron (CVX) – new 52-week high of $196.76, breakeven at $50 a barrel, generating significant free cash flow at $100 Brent
• RTX (RTX) – up 62% over the past year, Patriot missile system maker with Bernstein flagging urgent restocking demand
• Lockheed Martin (LMT) – up ~15% since the conflict began, THAAD prime contractor, new government contracts expected after White House meetings with defense executives

Losers:

• Royal Caribbean (RCL) – down ~7% on fuel cost fears as travel and leisure takes a broad hit
• Carnival (CCL) – down ~7%, cruise sector among the hardest hit outside of energy

The Iran war stocks dynamic is also playing out through rate expectations. The Fed is now pricing in just one 25 basis point rate cut in December, a sharp pullback from the two cuts markets were expecting before the conflict escalated. Goldman Sachs has also pushed its rate cut forecast from June to September and now sees PCE inflation hitting 2.9% by December. The crude oil price in 2026 is running well above what the Fed had modeled into its projections, and that is making any near-term easing almost impossible.

Also Read: US Senator: Putin Is the Clear Winner of the Iran War, Earns $6B

Energy Stocks to Buy: JPMorgan’s Case for Going Long

JPMorgan’s call to go long on energy stocks is rooted in a simple and also fairly brutal calculation. The IEA says this is the worst oil supply shock in the history of global markets, and there is currently no clear timeline for Hormuz to reopen. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said Navy escorts through the strait are “quite likely” by the end of the month, but that timeline is not guaranteed and markets are not pricing it in yet.

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) – Trading around $155, near its all-time high. Permian breakeven at $35 a barrel, with Wells Fargo raising its price target to $183.

• Chevron (CVX) – Settled around $193 after hitting a new 52-week high of $196.76. Breakeven at $50 a barrel, generating massive free cash flow at $100 Brent.

• CF Industries (CF) – One of the biggest indirect winners. Urea prices surged from $475 to $680 per metric ton as a third of global fertilizer trade transits Hormuz.

Brent at $100 and WTI at $95 are not short-term spikes but a sustained repricing of oil as long as the closure holds. JPMorgan’s trading desk is essentially telling clients to position accordingly and not fight the macro setup.

Also Read: Dubai’s $250B Property Boom Wiped Out in Two Weeks as Iran War Rages On

Conclusion

With the crude oil price in 2026 now a sustained macro headwind rather than a spike, the pressure on rate-sensitive sectors is not going away. JPMorgan is not calling a crash. It is telling clients that the risk-reward on the broad market is poor until there is clarity on the strait, and that Sunday’s futures open is the next key test.