Goldman Warns 25% Recession Risk as $150 Oil Hits US, Europe, and Asia

Goldman Sachs’s recession 2026 is no longer a fringe call. With Brent at $100 and the Strait of Hormuz still closed, Goldman raised US recession probability to 25%, a level where the oil price recession risk starts hitting real economic output. Oxford Economics puts $140 as the threshold for simultaneous recessions across the eurozone, UK, and Japan. The S&P 500 oil crash scenario Goldman modeled targets 5,400 in a severe supply shock, and the Asia LNG crisis is already visible in trade deficit data. The Hormuz recession risk has a number on it now.

Also Read: Iran Official: Hormuz May Reopen Only if Oil Is Traded in Chinese Yuan

Goldman Eyes S&P 5,400 as Korea, Taiwan, and Japan Face LNG Deficits

Goldman’s Recession Map

Goldman Sachs recession 2026 projections put US recession probability at 25% at $100 Brent, climbing to 50% at $120 and 75% at $140. The eurozone tracks higher at each level, hitting 90% at $140. The oil price recession risk at that range stops being a model exercise and starts being a baseline. On the equity side, the S&P 500 oil crash scenario brings the index to 5,400 under Goldman’s severe supply shock stress test.

Also Read: US Loses Diplomatic Control of Hormuz as Europe Cuts Its Own Oil Deals

Asia’s LNG Exposure

The Asia LNG crisis is already showing up in the numbers. Around 85% of LNG transiting Hormuz is headed to Asia, with limited rerouting options. The Kobeissi Letter had this to say:

“Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan are running LNG trade deficits of -1.5% of GDP, meaning they are the most vulnerable to shortages. Japan, the world’s 2nd-largest LNG importer, is also deeply exposed at -1.0% of GDP.”

The Hormuz recession risk compounds fastest for these economies since they have no real alternative supply routes to fall back on.

Bab al-Mandab and the 25M Barrel Scenario

Analyst Jack Prandelli flagged where the Goldman Sachs recession 2026 stress test could get worse:

“Hormuz is the headline. Bab al-Mandab is the next move.”

Hormuz carries 20 million barrels per day, Bab al-Mandab another 6 million. A coordinated closure puts over 25 million barrels per day offline, pushing the oil price recession risk past anything current S&P 500 oil crash models have fully priced in.

Also Read: Putin Envoy Predicts $150 Oil in Weeks as Goldman Eyes S&P 5,400