Arthur Hayes Calls $125K Bitcoin by Year-End as US Holds BTC Worth $25B

Bitcoin reserve developments accelerated this week as White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt confirmed a major announcement will drop within weeks, and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted Bitcoin price will hit $125,000 by year-end. The U.S. government currently holds 328,372 BTC worth approximately $25 billion, making it the largest known sovereign Bitcoin reserve holder globally.

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White House Drops Reserve Announcement Within Weeks as $4T War Liquidity Fuels Rally

Patrick Witt, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, told Bitcoin 2026 attendees that the administration has reached a breakthrough on the legal framework for the Bitcoin reserve. President Trump signed the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve executive order in March 2025, which barred the Treasury from selling seized BTC.

Witt had this to say:

“The president signed the strategic bitcoin reserve executive order last year, and we’ve gone to work in figuring out exactly the machinations necessary and legal interpretations that we need to get that right and solidify that and protect the digital assets, specifically bitcoin that we have on the government balance sheet.”

He added that the White House will make progress without waiting for Congress. “In the next few weeks, we’ll be making a big announcement,”

Witt continued:

“I think we have a bit of a breakthrough there, and obviously that needs to be followed up with legislation.”

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Hayes Targets $125K BTC Price on War Spending

Arthur Hayes delivered his Bitcoin price prediction at Bitcoin Vegas 2026, citing wartime defense spending and banking deregulation as catalysts. The Enhanced Supplemental Leverage Ratio change that went live April 1 could unlock $1.3 trillion in new bank lending, which Hayes said translates to roughly $4 trillion in total credit creation.

Hayes stated:

“So roughly $4 trillion could be created, which outweighs the credit destruction from AI job losses. That’s why I’ve turned more bullish on bitcoin.”

The BTC price has outperformed the Nasdaq since the U.S.-Iran war began in late February. Hayes argued the market is repricing from AI deflation to wartime inflation as defense budgets rise. The Trump administration is projecting Pentagon spending near $1.5 trillion, roughly 50% above prior levels.

Hayes said:

“Bitcoin is now focusing on wartime inflation. What is going to change now that there is an explicit admission by the United States and a lot of other countries that they’re on a wartime footing, their defense spending is inadequate, and they need to print more money to build more bombs.”

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The federal Bitcoin reserve currently holds seized coins from criminal forfeitures rather than open market purchases. Whether Witt’s announcement will include acquisition plans remains unclear, but lawmakers are expected to use the late 2026 National Defense Authorization Act as the legislative vehicle to codify the Bitcoin reserve into permanent law.