China Wiped €60B From ASML in Two Days but BofA Says the Threat Only Hits 2.4% of Its Sales

• ASML stock lost €60B in two days after China shipped 5 DUV chip printers but BofA reiterated its buy rating with a $2,845 target and over 70% upside from Monday’s close
• BofA analyst Didier Scemama says even if China sources all 20 planned DUV machines locally it only impacts 2.4% of ASML group sales making current levels an attractive buying opportunity
• ASML is the only company making EUV machines printing Nvidia’s AI chips Intel’s processors and chips for Elon Musk’s Texas factory while 22 analysts rate it buy or strong buy

ASML stock took a beating this week after news broke that China had started mass producing its own chipmaking tools, and the selloff wiped out roughly €60 billion in market value in just two days. But according to Bank of America, the panic doesn’t really match the numbers.

The 5-day chart shows just how sharp the move was, ASML dropped from around 1,800 to 1,546.99, a 12.13% slide, with the steepest part of the drop coming right after the DUV report hit on Monday and Tuesday.

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Why BofA Calls the ASML Stock Selloff an Overreaction and Still Sees 70% Upside With a $2,845 Target

What Actually Happened This Week with ASML Stock

ASML shares fell 5.9% on Monday and then another 5% on Tuesday, and that combination is what dragged the semiconductor stocks 2026 narrative into a full blown scare. The trigger was a report from The Information saying a Shanghai-based, state-backed firm, later identified in some outlets as Shanghai Aishengna Electronic Technology Group, had begun mass producing immersion DUV lithography tools. That’s the same category of machine ASML has dominated for decades, and it’s also tied closely to the Nvidia supply chain since ASML’s tools are what print the chips going into AI hardware. U.S. equipment makers Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA were also dragged down in sympathy, falling somewhere between 5% and 7%.

The Scale of China’s DUV Lithography China Push

Here’s where the numbers get interesting. The Chinese effort is targeting five immersion DUV systems delivered in 2026, climbing to about 20 in 2027, going to domestic customers like SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor and ChangXin Memory Technologies. ASML, for comparison, shipped 131 such systems in 2025 alone. So even at its most ambitious 2027 pace, the Chinese output would represent a small fraction of what ASML ships in a single year.

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BofA’s Math on the China Chip Breakthrough

BofA analyst Didier Scemama reiterated his buy rating on Monday along with a $2,845 price target for the U.S.-listed shares, which is more than 70% upside from Monday’s close. He also kept ASML stock labeled as a “top pick” at the bank. In his note, Scemama wrote that “China remains an important market for ASML, accounting for roughly 20% of group sales and 44% of DUV revenue in 2026.”

He added that “replacing ASML would require a domestic alternative with comparable productivity, overlay and cost of ownership. That remains a high hurdle.”

Even in a scenario where China sources all 20 of its planned DUV tools locally by 2027, Scemama calculated that would only affect €1.4 billion of ASML’s sales, or about 2.4% of group revenue. That’s the figure being used to argue the drop is overdone. Scemama’s own words on the matter:

“We think today’s weakness is an over-reaction and see current levels as an attractive opportunity.”

Why EUV Still Matters More Than DUV Lithography China

The machines China is producing are DUV, not EUV, and most analysts treat that distinction as the real line in the sand. ASML remains the only company on the planet making EUV lithography machines, which print the most advanced chips, including those going into Nvidia’s AI processors at TSMC, Intel’s Panther Lake chips and Elon Musk’s new factory in Texas. SMIC has also reportedly been evaluating China’s newer tools since September 2025, and it hasn’t proven reliability at scale yet. Is the ASML stock at real risk? China’s chip breakthrough brings this question to light.

Not everyone is as relaxed about it though. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote, described a rising Chinese competitor as a potential “nightmare scenario” for ASML if the country manages to break into the DUV market in a serious way. Researcher Sanne van der Lugt, affiliated with the Netherlands’ Leiden Asia Center, pointed out a bit of an irony in how this unfolded, noting that “what this shows is that U.S. export controls successfully created a business case for Chinese lithography” and that “it was not what they were intended to do, but that is the outcome.”

The ASML Stock Wider Analyst Picture

Beyond BofA, the broader sentiment on Wall Street hasn’t really shifted. 22 analysts currently rate ASML stock a buy or strong buy, and the average price target across the group sits at $2,172, which still implies more than 30% upside from current levels. JPMorgan also weighed in, with analysts writing that the China development is “another data point in China’s equipment self-sufficiency story,” while still noting that the gap in volume will likely limit damage even in the medium term.

What This Means Going Forward for The ASML Stock

For now, the story is less about ASML stock losing its grip and more about a long-term risk that’s being priced in early. China’s chip breakthrough dealing with the DUV lithography China effort is real, and it does mark a milestone for a country that’s been trying to close this gap for years, but the volumes involved are still small next to what ASML ships annually. China’s chip breakthrough is also becoming one of the bigger threads running through semiconductor stocks 2026 coverage overall. The bigger question going forward is whether this is a one-off headline or the start of a trend that eats into ASML’s China revenue over several years, especially with the MATCH Act still working its way through Congress and potentially changing the export picture again.

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