Bitcoin Could Face Pressure From BOJ’s Biggest Rate Hike Since 1995

Key Takeaways

• The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995, while signaling more tightening ahead
• Bitcoin has declined after each of the previous four BOJ rate hikes since 2024, with past corrections ranging between roughly 18% and 28%
• Prediction markets remain optimistic on Bitcoin’s long-term outlook

Bitcoin investors have another central bank decision to watch next week. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise interest rates to their highest level in more than three decades. This move comes as the cryptocurrency trades near record levels. While the decision itself is widely anticipated, previous BOJ rate hikes have coincided with notable declines in Bitcoin. But the chances of the king coin following this pattern yet again remain uncertain.

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BOJ Set to Raise Rates to Highest Level Since 1995

The Bank of Japan is expected to increase its benchmark interest rate to 1% from 0.75% at its June policy meeting. The move would take rates to their highest level since 1995 and mark another step in the central bank’s effort to address inflation pressures.

Markets have largely priced in the increase. Attention is now shifting to what policymakers say about future rate moves. A Reuters poll found economists expect the BOJ to raise rates again later this year, potentially taking the benchmark rate to 1.25%.

For investors, the significance extends beyond Japan. Changes in Japanese monetary policy can affect global liquidity and investor appetite for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Data shows Bitcoin declined after each of the previous four BOJ rate hikes since 2024. The largest move followed the July 2024 hike, when Bitcoin fell from roughly $65,000 to $49,000 within days.

This doesn’t mean another decline is inevitable. Bitcoin has traded through a range of macro events over the past two years. Multiple factors influence price action at any given time. Despite this, the pattern has become difficult for market participants to ignore.

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Community Remains Bullish on Bitcoin Price Despite Near-Term Risks

The next move in the Bitcoin price may depend on how investors balance macroeconomic risks against continued institutional demand. At press time, the asset is trading at $63,377.99 following a 0.76% rise over the past 24 hours. It should be noted that BTC dipped by a staggering 20% over the last 30 days.

Despite the recent weakness, some market forecasts remain constructive on Bitcoin’s outlook for the second half of the year. Data from crypto forecasting platform CoinCodex projects Bitcoin could trade between $88,800 and $92,500 during the third quarter of 2026, with an average price near $90,000.

Other analysts point to continued spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and growing institutional participation as potential sources of support. Standard Chartered has previously maintained a bullish long-term view on the asset. In addition, Bernstein analysts have argued that demand from ETFs could continue absorbing available supply.

Traders are likely to focus on next week’s BOJ meeting. But if Bitcoin reacts as it did after previous rate hikes may depend less on the increase itself and more on what policymakers decide about the of future interest rates.

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