Oil Price: Goldman Raises Brent to $90 as Record Inventory Draws Accelerate

The oil price outlook has been sharply revised upward by Goldman Sachs as the bank warns that global stockpiles are being depleted at an unprecedented rate. The investment bank raised its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90 per barrel, up from $80, while West Texas Intermediate was lifted to $83 from $75. The revisions come as massive production losses across the Middle East drain global oil inventories at a record 11 to 12 million barrels per day during April.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the Persian Gulf has lost 14.5 million barrels per day of crude production, and this supply shock is now reshaping the entire market. The global oil market has swung from a 1.8 million barrel per day surplus in 2025 to a projected deficit of 9.6 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026.

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Goldman Raises Q4 Forecast as 14.5M bpd Production Losses Drive Record Deficit

Analysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, who authored the April 27 note, emphasized the severity of the current situation. The analysts stated:

“We estimate that 14.5 million barrels a day of Persian Gulf crude production losses are driving global oil inventories to draw at a record 11 to 12 million barrel-a-day pace in April. Because extreme inventory draws are not sustainable, even sharper demand losses could be required if the supply shock persists longer.”

The Iran war has upended the global oil market, with a double blockade cutting daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz to near zero. Brent crude has rallied by almost 50% since the start of the conflict in late February, and at the time of writing, Brent futures were trading just below $108 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs now assumes a normalization in Gulf exports by the end of June, versus mid-May previously, and also expects a slower production recovery across the region. The bank’s analysts also noted broader economic risks beyond just the oil price itself. The analysts had this to say:

“The economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock.”

Goldman expects global oil demand to fall by 1.7 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, with the bank projecting a decline of 100,000 barrels per day for the full year. The demand destruction currently underway, however, falls well short of offsetting the massive supply losses that continue to drive inventory draws worldwide.

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