Nike Stock Falls as JPMorgan Says ‘Win Now’ Turnaround Could Hurt Until 2028

• JPMorgan downgraded Nike stock to Underweight and cut its price target to $40, warning that the company’s Win Now strategy will continue to weigh on earnings through fiscal 2028
• The bank estimates Nike’s planned Greater China digital marketplace reset could reduce annual revenue by more than $1 billion, while US store closures are expected to pressure sales into fiscal 2028
• JPMorgan also lowered its EPS forecasts for fiscal 2027 and 2028, arguing that Wall Street is underestimating the time and cost needed for Nike’s turnaround to gain traction

Nike (NKE) stock entered the year with hopes that CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround plan would mark the beginning of a recovery. Instead, Wall Street is growing more skeptical about how long that process could take. JPMorgan on Tuesday downgraded the athletic apparel giant. They noted that the financial impact of its Win Now strategy will extend well beyond current expectations. The call comes as Nike is facing slowing momentum in China and ongoing restructuring in North America

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Nike Stock Downgraded as JPMorgan Warns of a Longer Recovery

JPMorgan downgraded Nike stock to Underweight from Neutral and lowered its price target to $40 from $47. The bank believes investors are underestimating how long the company’s turnaround efforts will impact its financial performance.

Analyst Matthew Boss said discussions with management and recent fieldwork suggest decisions tied to Nike’s Win Now strategy through the end of calendar 2026 will continue affecting the company’s profit and loss statement well into fiscal 2028.

The brokerage also argued that Wall Street’s expectations for a stronger second half of fiscal 2027 are too optimistic. JPMorgan cut its fiscal 2027 earnings-per-share estimate to $1.55, about 10% below consensus. It lowered its fiscal 2028 forecast to $1.72, about 20% below market expectations. Rather than viewing 2028 as a return to growth, the bank sees it as a year of stabilization.

Shares of Nike fell following the downgrade, extending the stock’s difficult run. According to Barchart, Nike has underperformed the S&P 500 by its widest margin in roughly 25 years, with the stock down more than 30% year to date.

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Nike’s China Reset Could Create a $1 Billion Revenue Hit

Much of JPMorgan’s concern is around Greater China. This is where Nike is preparing for a reset in its digital marketplace beginning in January 2027.

Starting January 2027, the company is expected to reset its online marketplace, a move the bank estimates could create an annual revenue hit of more than $1 billion, or roughly 20% of Nike’s Greater China revenue. It should be noted that Nike’s business in Greater China has already been losing momentum. Revenue from the region fell from a peak of $8.3 billion in 2021 to $5.8 billion in 2026.

At the same time, store closures across North America are expected to impact sales through the first half of fiscal 2028.

JPMorgan also questioned the backdrop for the sportswear industry, describing global athletic apparel and footwear as a more mature category with slower growth prospects. The bank trimmed its North America growth outlook to 3%.

Nike is expected to provide investors with a clearer roadmap at its November investor day. During this, the management is anticipated to outline a three-year plan aimed at restoring double-digit operating margins by fiscal 2030. Until then, JPMorgan believes the market may still be underestimating the time and cost required to complete the company’s turnaround.

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