Markets
March 24, 2026
Apple’s outlook is being reassessed from multiple angles as analysts adjust expectations for the next two years. Bank of America has lowered Apple’s price target, pointing to changes in the company’s product timeline. Amidst this, separate data from Morgan Stanley highlights steady iPhone upgrade demand in key markets. Together, the updates offer a more detailed view of the evolving AAPL stock and its forecast as the firm heads into 2026.
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Record iPhone Upgrade Demand Meets a Shifting Product Cycle
Bank of America lowered its Apple price target to $320 from $325. Despite this, the bank maintained a buy rating for the firm. The bank expects Apple’s first foldable iPhone to arrive in 2026. But some models are pushed into 2027. This shifts some revenue further out than previously expected. The bank also nudged down its earnings estimates for the next few years to reflect that shift. Wamsi Mohan, Bank of America analyst, further said,
“Our checks in Asia suggest that Apple will likely introduce its first foldable iPhone in 2026.”
In a note, the bank noted that the foldable could feature an inner display between 7.7 and 7.8 inches. It reportedly measures under 10 mm when folded. Early expectations for demand are strong. The supply chain is preparing for anywhere between 10 million and 20 million units. In addition, the firm is also working on rolling out AI-powered wearables.
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Morgan Stanley Highlights Key Data
At the same time, Morgan Stanley’s latest AlphaWise survey points to strong demand for an iPhone upgrade. This comes particularly from the US and China. The survey shows upgrade intent reaching all-time highs for the next 12 months. This suggests faster replacement cycles compared to recent years.
Morgan Stanley expects Apple to gain share in 2026. This is supported by product features, device quality, and higher switching rates. Morgan Stanley’s latest Apple outlook also reflects broader industry pressure. The firm is cutting its global smartphone shipment forecast to 1.1 billion units from 1.3 billion.
Within that forecast, Android shipments are projected to decline 15% year over year. Meanwhile, Apple is expected to see a smaller 2% drop. The difference reflects stronger customer retention and demand trends. This contributes to Apple’s stable market share outlook for 2026.
It should be noted that Apple shares are down over 7% year to date. Just last month, the firm recorded one of the largest declines since April 2025. The stock seems to be underperforming slightly after a strong multi-year run that saw it gain more than 80% between 2023 and 2024. At present, AAPL was trading at $251.49 following a 1.41% rise in the past day.
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