When Will Bitcoin Reclaim $100K? 21Shares, JPMorgan, Hayes See New Highs

• Bitcoin could reclaim $100K by the end of 2026, with 21Shares and JPMorgan both pointing to a BTC price target near $100K once this bear market recovery plays out
• Standard Chartered has cut its own price target for BTC sharply this year, dropping from $300,000 to $150,000 and then to $100,000, while JPMorgan and 21Shares still point toward $100,000 to $170,000 by year-end
• Most analysts see Bitcoin reaching $266,000 as a long shot for now, since even JPMorgan’s own higher figure rests on a long-term gold comparison rather than a near-term call

Bitcoin is expected to reclaim $100K by the end of 2026, at least according to 21Shares, JPMorgan and Standard Chartered, even with BTC still down more than half from its October peak right now. Will Bitcoin go up enough to hit that $100K mark, or does the market need a rougher stretch first? A lot rides on how Bitcoin’s bear market recovery plays out over the next few months, and also on whether JPMorgan’s prediction for Bitcoin, built on a gold comparison, actually holds up. Whether Bitcoin can reclaim $100K this year is, at the time of writing, the base case at three major firms, and not a guarantee yet.

Also Read: CryptoQuant Urges Strategy to Pause Bitcoin Buying as Cash Reserves Fall 38%

Bitcoin To Reclaim $100K, Bear Market Recovery & JPMorgan Outlook

ETF Outflows And Strategy’s First Sale In Four Years

Bitcoin hasn’t managed to reclaim $100K yet for a pretty simple reason: money has been leaving Bitcoin ETFs faster than it’s been coming in. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw 13 straight days of outflows between mid-May and early June, and roughly $4.4 billion came out over that stretch, the longest losing run since these funds launched back in 2024. Strategy added to the pressure too, selling 32 BTC at the end of May to cover preferred dividend payments, its first sale in four years, even though that barely touched the company’s 843,706 BTC stack. None of this killed Bitcoin’s bear market recovery story on its own, but it did push the question of whether Bitcoin will go up further out for a lot of traders.

Standard Chartered Still Sees A Buying Zone Before Bitcoin’s Price Target of $100K

Geoffrey Kendrick, the global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, called the recent drop painful, and he also kept his year-end target in place after BTC briefly dipped to $59,000. He’s framing that low as the point where Bitcoin’s recovery from this bear market likely started.

Bitcoin is trading around $59,874 at the time of writing, down 20.8% over the past month and sitting within a 24-hour range of $58,188 to $61,823, according to CoinGecko. That puts its market cap near $1.2 trillion, with just over 20 million BTC in circulation against the 21 million hard cap. The current price also sits almost exactly where Kendrick has drawn his buying zone, which is part of why his $100,000 call hasn’t changed even after the latest leg down.

Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, said:

“Recent price action in Bitcoin has been challenging, to say the least.”

Kendrick’s price target for BTC hasn’t followed a straight line either. The bank cut its 2026 number from $300,000 to $150,000 back in December, and then down to $100,000 in February, after corporate treasury buying stalled and ETF inflows went soft. That’s quite a swing for one bank within a few months, and it says something about how fast sentiment can move right now. Even with all that back and forth, Kendrick still seems to think Bitcoin could reclaim $100K by December.

21Shares Says The Cycle Pattern Still Holds

21Shares’ mid-year State of Crypto report walked back the firm’s earlier call that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle had broken down, and it pointed instead toward a $100,000 to $110,000 base case by year-end, basically betting that Bitcoin will reclaim $100K without much drama. The firm’s own price target for BTC sits at the low end of that range, with the upper end reserved for a stronger second half.

Eliezer Ndinga, 21Shares’ head of research, said:

“The price action still looks familiar.”

What’s Fueling 21Shares’ Recovery Case

The firm’s thesis for a Bitcoin bear market recovery leans on rising long-term holder accumulation and a stablecoin supply that’s climbed above $320 billion, both read as signs that buyers are waiting on the sidelines and not leaving for good. Sovereign-level recognition is part of that picture too, with Russia advancing its own Bitcoin property bill ahead of a July 1 deadline, even as domestic crypto payments stay banned there. Unlike JPMorgan’s prediction for Bitcoin, this case doesn’t lean on a gold comparison at all. It leans on cycle history instead.

JPMorgan’s Gold Comparison Points To $170K

JPMorgan takes a pretty different route to a similar Bitcoin reclaiming $100K scenario. Its team built a model comparing Bitcoin’s size to roughly $6 trillion in global private gold investment, and that framework puts fair value near $170,000 over six to 12 months, and as high as $266,000 further out, according to strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and the rest of the bank’s digital assets team.

JPMorgan’s team, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, wrote:

“This is a mechanical exercise.”

JPMorgan’s Bitcoin prediction has shifted before too. The $170,000 figure dates back to last November, and it got stretched toward $266,000 once the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio kept falling, a number the bank’s own analysts called unrealistic for this year but doable further down the road. That kind of spread isn’t unique to JPMorgan’s own modeling either. Independent forecasting services running purely algorithmic projections land in a similar neighborhood for 2026, even without a single named analyst behind the number.

Bitcoin’s Price Target of $100K; What Independent Price Models Show

CoinCodex’s own long-term model puts June’s average price near $77,170, climbing toward an average closer to $90,000 by midsummer before cooling slightly into the back half of the year, with the high end of its range stretching as far as $92,500. None of that is a guarantee, since models like this lean heavily on historical volatility rather than fresh catalysts, but it does show the six-figure conversation isn’t limited to bank research desks.

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX’s co-founder, sits on the more bullish end of all this as well, tying a future BTC run to central bank money printing once an expected AI-spending bust hits, a thesis that lines up with how Bitcoin’s decoupling from the AI stocks rally has already started showing up in the charts. He mentioned:

“War means money printing.”

Could Bitcoin go up that much with Hayes in the mix? He certainly isn’t shy about picking a side.

Also Read: AAVE Price Jumps Over 16% as Standard Chartered Predicts 50x Rally Despite Bitcoin Drop

Martinez And Woo See A Deeper Low First

Not everyone agrees Bitcoin is ready to reclaim $100K from where the market sits right now. On-chain analyst Ali Martinez has flagged a possible low near $37,500 to $38,000 around October, and he’s basing that on the same three-up, one-down rhythm that’s shown up in past halving cycles.

Martinez has been backing that call with demand data too, not just chart patterns. The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price gap between Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has stayed below zero for 46 straight days now, a stretch that long usually means US buyers aren’t stepping back in the way they normally would near a real bottom.

Willy Woo’s floor sits a little higher, closer to $45,000, with the bearish phase expected to fade out sometime in the fourth quarter. Both of these calls push any real recovery from Bitcoin’s bear market further into the year than the more bullish banks seem willing to admit. Will Bitcoin go up before October, or does it need to test these lower levels first? That’s really the core disagreement between the two camps.

Aralez And Jiang Zhuoer Point To October

Trader Aralez has put together a month-by-month roadmap that calls for roughly $53,000 in July, a bounce into the mid-$60,000s in August, and then a final low near $46,000 in October, ahead of a push back toward $100,000 by December, another version of Bitcoin reclaiming $100K, just with a rougher road to get there. His own price target for BTC by December lines up with the bulls, even though his road there runs through $46,000 first. Chinese mining figure Jiang Zhuoer has offered up a related signal, pointing out that Strategy’s market-to-net-asset-value ratio has slid to 0.72, close to the 0.7 reading last seen during the 2022 downturn, and noting that Bitcoin bottomed roughly six months after that same ratio bottomed out in the previous cycle.

None of the bottom-callers above engage directly with JPMorgan’s prediction for Bitcoin, but their lower targets do quietly disagree with its gold-parity math. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, meanwhile, stays on the more bullish end of the range, pointing to $150,000 to $200,000 as institutional buying widens through the back half of the year, a view that lines up a lot more closely with JPMorgan’s longer-term case than with the bears above.

Also Read: BlackRock’s First Bitcoin Yield ETF Launches Today as XRP Whales Control 74.1% of Supply

The Week’s Daily Trading Ranges

Rather than quote a single price, which goes stale within hours in a market like this, the past week’s trading range tells a clearer story right now. Bitcoin’s daily low-to-high spread ran from about $62,050 to $63,500 on June 19, up to between $63,240 and $65,544 on June 22, which was the widest single-day move of the week at over $2,300. The pace cooled after that, and the range narrowed to roughly $60,085 to $62,899 by June 24, before an overnight drop pushed the low for June 24 into June 25 down to $59,023, the week’s softest mark, ahead of a partial bounce. There’s no sign yet, inside this kind of sideways chop, that Bitcoin is about to reclaim $100K anytime soon, but ranges like this one are usually where the turn ends up starting.

What The Volatility Says About Direction

Swings like the one on June 22 tend to show up before a market picks a real direction, and this week’s chop around the $60,000 area looks a lot like that kind of setup. For Bitcoin to reclaim $100K from here, that range would need to start drifting higher rather than sideways, and an extra push from ETF buyers would help that along quite a bit. For now, the range itself is about the closest thing to a signal anyone’s got, at the time of writing anyway.

Also Read: Franklin Templeton Files Bitcoin DRIP ETFs as More Than Half of BTC Supply Sits at a Loss

Every Camp Expects Higher, Just Not On The Same Calendar

21Shares, JPMorgan and Standard Chartered all treat Bitcoin’s price target of $100K as a base case rather than a floor under the current price, and each of these firms has revised its own numbers before, sometimes by tens of thousands of dollars within a single quarter. Every price target for BTC mentioned here, from 21Shares to Standard Chartered, gets treated by the firms themselves as a scenario and not a promise.

Bears Included, Everyone Still Points Higher

JPMorgan’s Bitcoin prediction, for what it’s worth, sits closer to Tom Lee’s range than to Standard Chartered’s, even though all three expect Bitcoin higher eventually. Even the more bearish analysts covered here, Martinez and Woo included, still expect Bitcoin to go higher than where it sits this week. They just disagree on the calendar, and also on how much pain comes first.

What Would It Take For for Bitcoin’s Price Target of $100K to Became Real

The next inflation print, and whatever tone the Fed strikes on rate cuts, will probably move Bitcoin’s bear market recovery one way or another before any of these targets get properly tested. Is Bitcoin going to go up in time to satisfy 21Shares’ base case, or does it need a trip toward $46,000 first, the way Aralez and Jiang Zhuoer both expect? Whatever happens with JPMorgan’s prediction for Bitcoin specifically, the broader direction most forecasters point to is still up, not down. Bitcoin reclaiming $100K, whenever it actually happens, will probably look obvious in hindsight, the way most of these calls usually do once the dust settles.