Morgan Stanley Slashed Its Oil Forecast as Nvidia Led a $40B Debt Rush on the Iran Deal

Key Takeaways

• Morgan Stanley cut its Brent forecast by $15 a barrel for Q3 and Q4, citing the Hormuz deal, as Nvidia led a $40B+ corporate debt rush the same day
• Trump, Vance, and Iran’s Ghalibaf signed the MoU electronically on Sunday, but Iran has not confirmed its own negotiator actually signed it
• The draft deal includes a possible $300B Iran reconstruction fund and $24B in unfrozen assets, but does not require Israel to withdraw from Lebanon

Wall Street moved quickly after news of a tentative US-Iran agreement began circulating. Morgan Stanley cut its Brent crude forecast, bond issuance surged, and investors piled back into risk assets on expectations that oil supplies could soon normalize. Yet while markets have embraced the deal, some of its most important details remain unresolved. This includes whether Tehran has formally signed onto the framework now driving the rally.

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Why Iran Hasn’t Confirmed Its Own Negotiator Signed the Deal Markets Are Celebrating

Morgan Stanley’s latest oil forecast shows just how seriously markets are taking the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In a June 15 note, the bank lowered its Dated Brent outlook to $90 a barrel for the third quarter and $80 for the fourth. It trimmed both forecasts by $15. Analysts also brought forward their timeline for a recovery in Middle East oil exports by up to two weeks.

The reaction wasn’t limited to energy markets. According to reports, US companies lined up to raise more than $40 billion in debt on Monday. This was one of the busiest sessions of the year. Nvidia was among the largest borrowers in the investment-grade market. Meanwhile, Qnity Electronics launched a major leveraged-loan deal as credit conditions improved. The corporate debt rally came as oil prices fell, equities climbed, and Treasury yields eased.

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Markets Are Betting on a Deal That Isn’t Finished

The market’s confidence contrasts with the uncertainty surrounding the agreement itself. US officials say President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf electronically signed a memorandum of understanding on Sunday. Iran, however, has not publicly confirmed Ghalibaf’s participation. In addition, the full text of the agreement has yet to be released.

Reports also indicate that a formal signing ceremony is planned for Geneva later this week. The framework reportedly includes access to $24 billion. This is the previously frozen Iranian assets and a potential $300 billion reconstruction package backed by Gulf states.

Despite the market’s optimism, some analysts caution that major risks remain. Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said,

“The threat of renewed conflict will remain in the coming months. Pushing the most difficult issues into later negotiations prolongs uncertainty and leaves the underlying confrontation unresolved.”

The Iran deal has got the Wall Street pricing in. But it leaves several questions unanswered. Israel is not a party to the agreement, and US officials have said the framework does not require an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. As of now, investors appear focused on the prospect of Hormuz reopening oil flows rather than the details still being negotiated.

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