China Is Stockpiling for War While US Housing Hits Its Worst Since 2009

The US housing market fell to its slowest March pace since 2009 as existing home sales dropped 3.6% to 3.98 million units. At the same time, China imports surged 27.8% in March, the strongest growth since November 2021, as Beijing stockpiled energy and strategic materials ahead of prolonged conflict. Mortgage rates climbed from 5.98% before the Iran war to 6.37% last week, directly impacting buyer affordability and market momentum.

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China Imports Hit 4-Year High as US Home Sales Drop to 2009 Levels

Iran War Pushes Mortgage Rates Higher

The Iran war sent energy prices surging in March, pushing mortgage rates up and squeezing American homebuyers out of the market. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales fell short of the 4.06 million pace economists expected, with declines across all four regions.

Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, stated:

“Lower consumer confidence and softer job growth continue to hold back buyers.”

Despite falling sales, the median home price hit $408,800 in March, marking the 33rd consecutive month of price increases. The US housing market now faces a fragile spring season as mortgage rates remain elevated and inventory stays well below the 2 million homes that was typical before the pandemic.

China Stockpiles Energy as Exports Slow

While the US housing market struggled, China imports jumped to a four-year high as Beijing prepared for extended geopolitical uncertainty. Crude oil imports rose in volume despite falling in dollar value, confirming strategic stockpiling. Rare earth imports more than tripled in value, and Goldman Sachs data shows Chinese chemical prices rose between 50% and 100% since late February.

Gary Ng, senior economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, said:

“China’s exports have decelerated as the Iran war starts to affect global demand and supply chains.”

Chinese exports grew just 2.5% in March, down sharply from 21.8% in January and February. Exports to the US fell 26.5% year-over-year as trade tensions and the Iran war weighed on demand.

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NAR Slashes Housing Forecast

The combination of rising mortgage rates and weakening confidence led NAR to cut its 2026 forecast. The trade group now expects existing home sales to rise just 4% this year, down from its previous 14% projection.

Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, stated:

“The ongoing conflict with Iran continues to create significant geopolitical uncertainty and is a primary driver of volatile mortgage rates and higher gas prices.”

Inventory rose 3% to 1.36 million homes in March, but that’s still far below normal levels. First-time buyers made up just 32% of sales, well short of the 40% needed for a healthy US housing market.

Yun added:

“An additional 300,000 to 500,000 homes for sale would help bring the market closer to normal conditions and allow consumers to make purchase decisions without feeling rushed.”

The war’s impact on the US housing market and China imports highlights how the same global crisis is affecting the world’s two largest economies in completely opposite ways.

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