US Unemployment Could Hit 20% by 2028, Home Prices Reach Record High

• A market analyst projected that US unemployment could reach 20% by 2028, though no major institution currently forecasts that outcome
• Home prices have climbed to a record high, making housing affordability increasingly difficult for first-time buyers
• Rising mortgage rates and home values continue to widen the gap between wages and housing costs across the US

The latest US unemployment forecast is making the rounds on social media. One market analyst suggested the jobless rate could climb to 20% by 2028. This level has not been seen since the Great Depression. While the projection is not an official government forecast, it comes as home prices continue setting new records.

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US Unemployment Concerns Grow as Home Prices Stay Near Record High

The unemployment projection comes from market commentator FinanceLancelot, who based the estimate on historical labor market trends. No major institution, including the Federal Reserve, the Congressional Budget Office, or the International Monetary Fund, currently forecasts unemployment reaching 20%. Despite this, the prediction has gained traction as concerns over slowing economic growth and affordability continue to build.

Those concerns are already visible in the housing market. According to Redfin, the median US home-sale price climbed to a record $409,000 during the four weeks ending June 28. This extended a steady rise despite elevated borrowing costs. At the same time, mortgage rates remain well above the historic lows seen during the pandemic, keeping monthly payments high for prospective buyers.

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First-Time Homebuyers Face Mounting Pressure

The affordability gap has widened considerably over the past decade. A recent Pew Research Center report found that the median home price was 3.5 times the annual income of households under 40 in 2024, compared with 2.4 times in 1975. Between 2019 and 2024, median home prices jumped about 30%. Meanwhile, household incomes increased by only 9%.

Those figures help explain why first-time homebuyers are becoming increasingly rare. The National Association of Realtors reported that first-time buyers accounted for just 21% of all home purchases in 2025, the lowest share on record. The typical first-time buyer is now 40 years old, another historic high.

If the US unemployment prediction ultimately proves accurate, it remains uncertain. But even without a severe labor market downturn, today’s combination of record home prices, elevated mortgage rates, and weakening affordability has already made homeownership a difficult goal for many younger Americans. A meaningful rise in unemployment would only add more pressure to an already strained housing market.

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