Gas Was $2.98 Before Iran and Now at $4.56 & a Peace Deal Still Won’t Fix It

• US gas prices hit $4.558 per gallon today, up 53% since the Iran war started, when Americans paid $2.98
• California is at $6.17 per gallon, with six states near or above $5, straining budgets nationwide
• Experts warn full recovery won’t come until mid-2027, even if an Iran deal closes today

Gas prices in the US have climbed to their highest level since 2022. The national average reached $4.558 per gallon this week, according to AAA gas prices data. Before the Iran war began in February, drivers were paying around $2.98. California has already crossed $6 on average, and analysts say even a peace agreement would not bring immediate relief. They argue that the market is still dealing with supply risks that could keep gas prices elevated well into 2027.

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Why US Gas Prices Are Up 53% Since the Iran War and How Long Until They Come Down

AAA said the national average for regular gasoline has increased by 25 cents for the second straight week. Prices are now around 53% higher than they were before the Iran war oil conflict disrupted global energy markets.

The biggest pressure point remains the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route that handles about one-fifth of global crude oil supplies. Ongoing disruptions in the region have slowed tanker movement and increased transportation and insurance costs. This keeps fuel markets tight even as crude prices eased slightly in recent days. Columbia University energy researcher Bob Kleinberg said,

“Not much of a mystery here. It’s not exactly proportional but the shape of the curves follows the same pattern, and really with very little delay.”

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Why a Peace Deal May Not Lower Gas Prices Quickly

Energy analysts say pump prices tend to lag behind oil prices, especially after a major supply shock. Gas stations are still selling fuel purchased when wholesale prices were higher. Meanwhile, refiners continue dealing with elevated operating costs.

Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy recently said prices may not fully return to pre-war levels until “early or mid-2027.” Analysts have also warned that the market could take months to stabilize even if tensions ease soon. Rob Smith, director of global fuel retail at S&P Global Energy, said,

“There’s a fundamental shortfall that will exist globally or fundamental struggle to meet that demand that will drive up price. No matter what a government says or what any market person thinks, there is a true kind of upward pressure that’s being exerted on prices every day the Strait of Hormuz is constrained.”

The latest gas price increase has also been linked to tighter restrictions on Iranian oil exports introduced earlier this year. According to reports, those moves added more pressure to an already strained global supply market heading into the summer travel season.

California continues to report the highest statewide averages at around $6.17 per gallon. Meanwhile, states including Nevada, Washington, and Illinois are nearing or above the $5 range. Analysts expect prices to remain volatile through the rest of the year as markets continue reacting to developments in the Middle East.

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